Thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 14th, Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Hlau thiab Hlau tau tshaj tawm luv luv - daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev thov kwv yees rau 2026-2027 hauv Berlin. Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tsuas yog ob kab lus: hauv 2026, lub ntiaj teb steel xav tau nce me ntsis los ntawm 0.3% mus rau 1.724 billion tons, thiab hauv 2027, nws nce 2.2% mus rau 1.762 billion tons.
Cov lus qub ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Pawg Neeg Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam ntawm Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Hlau yog: "Kuv ntseeg tias qhov kev thov steel thoob ntiaj teb yuav qis dua hauv 2025-2026." Hloov mus rau hauv vernacular-lub sijhawm "ntev thiab nyuaj" downward lub sij hawm los ntawm 2022 thaum kawg tau tig. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev kwv yees no yeej muaj kev saib xyuas ntau dua li lub Kaum Hli dhau los. Lub sijhawm ntawd, nws xav tias yuav nce 1.3% hauv 2026, thiab tam sim no nws tau txiav mus rau 0.3%. Vim li cas thiaj txo qis? Cov lus teb yog nyob rau hauv Middle East.
Tuam Tshoj: Kev poob qis tau nqaim mus rau 1.5%, thiab qhov phem tshaj plaws tau dhau mus?
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau mob siab rau qhov chaw loj rau kev tsom xam ntawm Tuam Tshoj kev ua lag luam, thiab nthuav qhia lub teeb liab tias txoj kab nqes tshaj plaws yuav tau nce.
Tshwj xeeb, qhov poob ntawm steel xav tau nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yuav tsum nqaim mus rau -1.5% nyob rau hauv 2026, thiab nws yuav zoo tib yam nyob rau hauv 2027.
Lub logic tom qab nws tsis nyuaj. Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev yog "ze rau hauv qab"- qhov no yog qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawm World Steel Association. Ua ke nrog kev txaus siab ntawm tsoomfwv hauv nroog kom loj hlob tsis tu ncua, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse yuav "nce me ntsis" xyoo no. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev tsim khoom, kev lag luam kev lag luam loj hlob tuaj yeem nqa kev txhawb nqa nruab nrab.
Ib qho tseem ceeb tom qab yog tias lub Kaum Hlis xyoo tas los, Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Hlau tau kwv yees tias qhov kev thov hauv Suav teb yuav poob 2.0% hauv 2025. Txawm li cas los xij, cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm tiag tiag tau nqis los ntawm 7.1%, thiab qhov sib txawv tsis yog me me. Lub koom haum nws tus kheej lees tias "cov pov thawj tsis ncaj qha qhia tau tias qhov kev poob qis yog qhov nruab nrab ntau dua li daim duab no", tab sis txawm li cas los xij, tus lej ntawm 7.1% tseem cuam tshuam txog kev ntxhov siab npaum li cas hauv kev lag luam tau raug kev txom nyem xyoo dhau los.
Hauv lwm lo lus, los ntawm "down 7%" mus rau "down 1.5%, kev txhim kho hauv nruab nrab yog tiag tiag.
Is Nrias teb: qhov loj tshaj plaws "tsuas yog menyuam yaus" hauv ntiaj teb
Yog tias Tuam Tshoj ua lag luam "tso tseg", ces lub khw Indian yog "soaring".
Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Hlau tau kwv yees tias Is Nrias teb cov kev thov steel yuav nce 7.4% hauv 2026 thiab ntxiv mus rau 9.2% hauv 2027.
Lub tswvyim twg? Lub ntiaj teb kev loj hlob nruab nrab tsuas yog 0.3% thiab 2.2%. Is Nrias teb tau tsa cov ntaub ntawv ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam loj hlob los ntawm nws tus kheej.
Infrastructure- coj kev tsim kho kev lag luam, kev lag luam tsheb booming (nce freight thov yog ib qho tseem ceeb tsav tsheb), thiab kev siv nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua - yuav luag tag nrho cov kev lag luam steel hauv Is Nrias teb tau nthuav dav. Qhov xwm txheej "tag nrho Bloom" yog qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm cov kev lag luam loj hauv ntiaj teb.
Middle East: Ib qho "Uncertain Variable"
Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev hloov kho qis ntawm qhov kev kwv yees no yog qhov teeb meem Middle East.
Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Steel Ameslikas xav tias yuav muaj kev loj hlob zoo nyob hauv Middle East, tab sis qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ncaj qha "ua rau" qhov kev cia siab - qhov kev thov rau steel nyob rau hauv Middle East yuav tsum "poob sharply" nyob rau hauv 2026.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm yog qhov tseeb: qhov kev xav tseem ceeb yog tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb yuav raug daws ua ntej Lub Rau Hli. Yog tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb txuas ntxiv mus dhau lub quarter thib ob, yuav xav tau "kev hloov kho qhov poob qis", tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam uas cov qauv hluav taws xob yog tus nqi -sensitive.
Qhov no yog sib npaug rau ntxiv "kev pheej hmoo clause" rau tag nrho cov kev kwv yees. Tam sim no, zoo li Tebchaws Meskas, Tuam Tshoj thiab Is Nrias teb tau txwv tsis pub muaj kev cuam tshuam ncaj qha los ntawm qhov xwm txheej hauv Middle East, tab sis EU tsis muaj hmoo. Txawm hais tias EU tau ntxiv dag zog rau kev hloov pauv ntawm nws lub zog txij li Russia -Kev kub ntxhov hauv Ukrainian xyoo 2022, nws qhov kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb heev.
